纽约联储-了解美国气候变化与不平等之间的联系（英）-2021.11-42正式版.docx

STAFFREPORTSN 0.9 91N OV EMBER 2 02 1UnderstandingtheLinkagesbetweenClimateChangeandInequalityintheUnitedStatesRuchiAvtarKristianBlickleRajashriChakrabartiJanaviJanakiramanMaximPinkovskiyIElHKAlKlSIRVFBANK"/NEWYORKUnderstandingtheLinkagesbetweenClimateChangeandInequalityintheUnitedStatesRuchiAvtar,KristianBlickle,RajashriChakrabarti,JanaviJanakiraman,andMaximPinkovskiyFederalReserveBankOfNeWYorkStajfReports,no.991November2021JELclassification:Q54,Q58,D63AbstractWeconductareviewoftheexistingacademicliteraturetooutlinepossiblelinksbetweenclimatechangeandinequalityintheUnitedStates.First,researchershaveshownthattheimpactofbothphysicalandtransitionrisksmaybeunevenacrosslocation,income,race,andage.Thisisdrivenbyaregion'sgeographyaswellasitsadaptationcapabilities.Second,measuresthatindividualsandgovernmentstaketoadapttoclimatechangeandtransitiontoloweremissionsriskincreasinginequality.Finally,whilefederalaidandinsurancecoveragecanmitigatethedirectimpactofphysicalrisks,theirstructuremay-inadvertentlysustainandentrenchexistinginequalities.Weconcludebyoutliningsomedirectionsforfutureresearchonthenexusbetweeninequalityandclimatechange.Keywords:climate,naturaldisaster,inequalityAvtar,Blickle,Chakrabarti,Janakiraman,Pinkovskiy:FederalReserveBankofNewYork(emails:ruchi.avtarny.frb.org,kristian.blickleny.frb.org,rajashri.chakrabartiny.frb.org,janavi.janakiramanny.frb.org,maxim.pinkovskiyny.frb.org).TheauthorsthankMarkAndrews,NicolasBecka,TerriJ.Fowlkes,AndrewHaughwout,BeverlyHirtle,AkashKanqjia,NicholasKlagge,DonMorgan,MichaelJ.Roy,JoaoSantos,LamairJ.Tanner,andKatherineTilghmanHillforvaluableinput,suggestions,andcomments.Thispaperpresentspreliminaryfindingsandisbeingdistributedtoeconomistsandotherinterestedreaderssolelytostimulatediscussionandelicitcomments.Theviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflectthepositionoftheFederalReserveBankofNewYorkortheFederalReserveSystem.Anyerrorsoromissionsaretheresponsibilityoftheauthor(s).Toviewtheauthors,disclosurestatements,visithttps:/www.newyorkfed.org/research/stafLreports/sr99l.html.IntroductionAlthoughtheeffectsofclimatechangeoneconomicoutputandfinancialstabilityhavereceivedconsiderableattentioninpublicdiscourse,scholarlyliterature,andpolicydiscussions,theinteractionsbetweenclimatechangeandincome,wealthandhealthinequality We interchangeably use "economic inequality to describe these inequalities.havereceivedfarlessdiscussion.However,itisincreasinglylikelythatclimatechangewillnotonlyhaveimportanteffectsoneconomicoutput,butthatitwillhaveprofoundeffectsonthegeographic,socioeconomic,anddemographicdistributionofoutput.ThispaperpresentsaliteraturereviewofexistingevidenceonmechanismsbywhichclimatechangecanaffecteconomicinequalityintheUnitedStates.First,wereviewwhetherrisksfromclimatechangeaffectpopulationsandregionsdifferently.Second,weconsiderwhetherinstitutionsandpoliciesaroundclimateriskmayhavedifferentialeffectsindifferentregionsandondifferentcommunities.Finally,weidentifyopenquestionsandgapsintheliteraturethatcouldbenefitfromadditionalexplorationandresearch.Risksassociatedwithclimatechangecanbedecomposedintotwocategoriesphysicalrisksandtransitionrisks.Physicalrisksrefertothepotentialforlossesasclimate-relatedchanges(storms,droughts,floods,sealevelrises,etc.)disruptbusinessoperations,destroycapital,andinterrupteconomicactivity.Transitionrisksrefertothepotentialforlossesresultingfromashiftinpolicy(forexample,movingtowardalower-carboneconomy),consumersentiment,technologicalinnovationandmanyothersthatwillaffectthevalueofcertainassetsandliabilities.Transitionriskscanalsotaketheformofpersonaladaptationmechanismstocombatclimatechangethroughmigrationorinnovation.Wediscussinsectionsbelowwhetherthesephysicalandtransitionrisksassociatedwithclimatechangeareunevenacrossgeography,income,race,andage.See Chakrabarti (2021).Wefindmultipleimportantchannels,highlightedbyvariousstrandsofliterature,thatpointtothehypothesisthattheheterogeneityindirectphysicalimpactsofclimatechange,thedifferentialadaptationcapabilitiesofdifferentregions,andtheeffectsofclimatepolicyandinstitutionsmayworktoincreaseeconomicinequality.First,theliteratureonthegeographiclocationofthedirectphysicalimpactsofclimatechangesuggeststhatregionsoftheUnitedStatesthatarehometoabove-averagesharesoflow-incomeandminoritygroupsarelikelytosufferthegreatestmeteorologicaleffectsofclimatechange.Inparticular,theU.S.South,withthelowestpercapitaincomeoftheU.S.censusregions,ispredictedtoexperiencethegreatestleveloftotaldirectdamagesfromclimatechange.Second,agrowingliteratureinhouseholdfinancepresentsevidencethatlow-incomeandminorityAmericansarelimitedinhowtheymayadapttoclimatechangebecausetheyhavelessaccesstoinsuranceandarelesslikelytohaveaccesstocreditwhenneeded.Moreover,anothergrowingbodyofworksuggeststhatamajoradaptationmechanismtoclimatechangeworldwidewillbemigrationtotheUnitedStatesfromlow-incomecountriestha