2024年欧元区经济报告.docx

MacroeconomicdevelopmentsAfteracontinuedreboundin2022,theeuro-areaeconomywitnessedastrongdecelerationthisyear.I”2022,仪/gev出VZ-CCMU>心Uzwtvpd>uhuh-to-334%C£Z>nz>mi£zemM/Pezfhi>vCtaergypru£/izvZwtMerof2CQ2-)ZetAn0vcUCnThZZLabotrJAwkPuMZ(X6*vlwJyJIc6y叶nAx£#t>f£zMz>mt£/rlte*veez5Mpp6>rfa吁SfiLLi(VX£rrifvtcz>l½>navcCMz%jD/of-H7wfVHmCKpMrWOV板冰5£z吁2223.Fbr2223,CPP阶核eunrrezMdby06%wvWffarz×yerQw¼G%Mz.lRealGDPgrowthandcontributions,euroareaConsumptionmbInvestment(GFCF)InventoriesinvestmentNetexportsRealGDPgrowth(Z)dajrEA2O邛rf-Hia检斓业Wi外Source:EiAnJPezu*v6m*v>vfPertM*uLCZM/)妙¼-vivi>e££/ftvt/.Rm>mtMLwavotd£borJajdtMyf%>jbk/UA£z>meCFV¼nvp>rfiavvMi/vcz11r¼rRee>-rvyf¾<for#x£zCMrtrrvpd>u-廿wtake6>n6>mu/¢vc7wvcz>rcnMLNWkrdUjin/utryt>Mrvvuz5£me£wKhzwvc<,c£riku>vwui>Lu0<37vemeMi>vZ(i)cvejpoiprvjcctt£b¼Ofrovro4roJW?UHXC/PaewrvculUzjuc)joMlewu<tM<vvej;hz/M姑廿btj¢(z?mct£z<plvuuLOveralLi6PPfor7M×eurtare3eeez让grw1.2%iv如241.6%UV如25(GQPh1.1).Energypriceshavegonedown,whileinflationexcludingenergyandfoodremainshighthoughfallinggradually.EunruWu>pvJILIFVOdobtiri¼-24%Tk出WtrV的m43%ivSfdbcrjjL核kvuj77p)nwMzPekZin/O(ober2022.7¼×deliwe*vri>wi%falLuenayf2rue(pt2-6vzZtAL(pwMwi>v-/MzMrcz>mn£jLowtirJbrfojCZnWVwiypru£gezrwtcewin/Zz>rvCnpri/¼-0>")txlLYuaom忒他U他也心心口如VI必WdMktLSrvii>Wu>nz0>-(X"壮ocz>mwtC初OJiJrCZ>mpd>n£yv/5/(>4Gi>vOcfb,OfttirOFVuj<to-56%CfvJi),叶norwfh<>i>rewju*uprofit(seeBox3.1)"de5t*如晶"Cybrcz>n>jv5*vu0(¼urwThzzyMe>u>nmu<yp&UeyOCcZWyaLpd>(ietehzz>(/ee×inLfe>rwy($e£zSfc>>vAOVenlVJuMirJbi*vWu？n/3rojeeeztrkluZ×i*v-fM×ewtrAmildreboundingrowthisexpectedduetoeasingofinflationandastronglabourmarketBken224jz/5lCPvi>Uu>n/(j)HinJpe*vConAniiin6u*vtc<>>MMner5Mrvtyareafrom8.4%n2022to5.6%n2023,andthenfurtherdownto3.2%in2024and2.2%in2025.Coreinflation(?)isexpectedtobeslightlymorepersistent,however,increasingto5.1%in2023from4.0%in2022,andthensubsequentlyfallingto3.2%in2024and2.5%in2025.(Graph1.2)inpricesovertheprevious10years(Graph1.3).Inanumberofcountries1includingtheBaIticstCroatiaandSlovakia,theshockisevenstronger.Graph1.3:Convergenceofunderlyinginflation,euroareaGraph1.2Jnflationbreakdown,euroareaEnergyandunprocessedfood(pps.)Othercomponents(coreInflatk>n)(pps.)-HICP,allitemsSourceEuropeanCOrnmiSSion0%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-'ll"(1)HICPinflationexdudingfoodandenergy(2)2019-2023cumulatedinflationcomparedto2009-2019cumulatedinflationSource:Eurostat,owncalculationsThedecreaseinenergypricesover2023haspartlyreducedthedifferencesininflationratesbetweentheeuro-areacountries.In2022,theinflationdispersionintheeuroareawaslargelydrivenbydiferencesinenergyinflation,reflectingdifferenceintheenergymixandinthesourcesofimportedenergy,aswellassupportmeasuresimplementedinthevariousMemberStates.Energypricesareexpectedtodecreasein2023formostMemberStates,withthestrongestdecreaseintheMemberStatesthatfacedthesharpestincreasesin2022,notablytheNetherIandsjEstoniaandBelgium.However,thecorrectioninenergypricesremainsfarfromcomplete,withsomecountriessettocontinuerecordingpositiveenergyinflation.MoreoverJnfIationexcludingfoodandenergyremainedhighinmostMemberStatesin2023,dueinparticulartothelaggingeffectofhighenergyprices.lntheeuroarea,thecoreinflationrecordedsince2019iscomparabletothecumulatedincrease?)CoreinflationisdefinedinthisreportasoverallHICPinflationexcludingenergy,food,alholandtobac.Thelabourmarketisclosetofullemployment,andwagegrowthisgraduallyrestoringpurchasingpower.Overthelasttwoyears,unemploymentratesthroughouttheeuroareahavestabilisedatrecordlowIeveIstStandingat6.5%inSeptember,downfrom6.7%inthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.Meanwhile,employmentcontinuestoincreaseinalmostoftheMemberStates,exceptItaIyjLatvia,CroatiaandEstonia,recordingfrommodesttomoderatecontractionoftheiremploymentratesinQ22023.Employmentgrowthisparticularlystronginlowenergy-dependentsectors,notablysomeservices(SeeSection3).Despitetheslowdowninactivityinthefirstpartof2023,thelabourmarketremainsverytight,witheuro-areajobvacancyrateremainingatelevatedlevels(3%inQ22023).nthatcontext,wageshavesofarnotkeptpacewithinflation,whichislikelyduetoalaggedwagebargaining.In2023,thereareearlysignsofwageacceleration(seeSection2),althoughrealwagesareonlyexpectedtoreboundasoftheendof2023andrecovermoderatelyinthecourseof2024.Theeurorealeffectiveexchangeratehasappreciatedin2023dentingcostcompetitiveness.IXZLq-2Cf22.i¼ctrrtizof-fhkvuu/v-frcupar/£rycunrare/VcZ>j*cz>mcvnzSi££zyM>jZzi>vUaflafytvivvv0*vrteufe>rvu<vZurtropjjoJixcuntn;