国际事务研究院-尚未适应世界：欧盟军事、网络和情报资产的零碎积累（英）-2021.11-42正式版.docx

November 2021Contributing authors:Kristine Berzina, Ivo Juurvee5Tony Lawrence and Maurice TurnerJOINTAjoined-upUnion,astrongerEuropeJOINTResearchPapersNo.4NotYetFitfortheWorld:PiecemealBuildupofEUMilitary,CyberandIntelligenceAssetsKristiRaikThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion'sHorizon2020researchandinnovationprogrammeundergrantagreementN.959143.Thispublicationreflectsonlytheviewoftheauthor(s)andtheEuropeanCommissionisnotresponsibleforanyusethatmaybemadeoftheinformationitcontains.NotYetFitfortheWorld:PiecemealBuildupofEUMilitary,CyberandIntelligenceAssetsLeadauthor:KristiRaikContributingauthors:KristineBerzina,IvoJuurvee,TonyLawrenceandMauriceTurner*AbstractInthepastdecades,theEUhasdevelopedanincreasinglybroad,multi-sectoralsetofforeignandsecuritypolicyinstruments.AllofthesecanberelevantinsustainingtheEU,scrisisandconflictmanagementefforts.Whiletryingtocreateamoreeffectiveandintegratedtoolbox,theUnionhasfacedanumberofchallenges.First,astheEU,sscopeofactivityandlevelofambitionhaveincreased,theneedtostrengthentheuharderend”ofinstruments-includingmilitary,cyberandintelligencetools-hasbeenwidelyacknowledged,buttheseremainweak.Second,withEUpoliciesextendingtoareaswheretheUnion,sresourcesandcompetenciesareweak,theneedtomobilisememberstates1resourceshasbecomemoreimportant,butensuringmeaningfulcontributionsfrommemberstateshasprovendifficult.Third,ithasbecomeanevermorecomplextasktoconnectthemultiplesectorstoeachothertobuildacomprehensivepolicy.KristiRaikisDirectoroftheEstonianForeignPolicyInstituteattheInternationalCentreforDefenceandSecurity(ICDS).KristineBerzinaisSeniorFellowandHeadoftheGeopoliticsTeamattheAllianceforSecuringDemocracyintheGermanMarshallFundoftheUnitedStates(GMF).IvoJuurveeisHeadofSecurity&ResilienceProgrammeattheICDS.TonyLawrenceisHeadofDefencePolicyandStrategyProgrammeattheICDS.MauriceTurnerisCybersecurityFellowattheAllianceforSecuringDemocracyintheGMF.TheauthorsaregratefultoStevenBlockmans,ZachPaikinandDylanMacchiariniCrossonfromCEPSandPolBargudsfromCIDOBfortheirthoroughandinsightfulcommentsonearlierversionsofthepaper.IntroductionThefirstforeignpolicytoolsoftheEuropeanUniondatebacktothecreationoftheEuropeanEconomicCommunityin1957,whichestablishedcommonexternaleconomicpolicieswithastrongsupranationalcompetence.Thiswastraditionallyseenasthetechnical,hIowpoliticsnareaofexternalrelations,asopposedtothe“highpolitics*'ofsensitiveforeignandsecuritypolicymatterswherememberstateswerekeentomaintainanintergovernmentalapproach.1Foreignpolicycoordinationamongmemberstatesincreasedfromthe1970s,butaleaptoamoreinstitutionalised-yetstillintergovernmental-CommonForeignandSecurityPolicy(CFSP)wasonlymadewiththeMaastrichtTreatysignedin1992.ThenewmomentumwasinitiatedbydramaticchangesintheinternationalenvironmentthatcreatedbothnewspaceandaneedforastrongerEuropeanapproachtoregionalsecuritymatters,whichwasmostpainfullyunderscoredbythewarsinformerYugoslavia.Sincethe1990s,theUnionhasbeengraduallystrengtheningthe“higher Stanley Hoffmann, ,The European Process at Atlantic Crosspurposes,l in Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 3, No. 1 (1964), p. 85-101. Josep Borrell Fontelles, Opening statement, Hearing at the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the European Parliament, Brussels, 7 October 2019, https:/multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/ hearing-of-josep-borrell- fontelles-high-representative-vice-president-designate-of-the-european-commission-opening-statement_l 178140-V_v.'and*,hardernendofEUforeignandsecuritypolicyinstruments,therebybecominganincreasinglymultisectoralforeignpolicyactor.Duringthepastdecade,thechanginginternationalenvironmenthasyetagaincreatednewdemands,astheworldhasbecomemoremultipolar,uncertaintyabouttheUnitedStates*commitmenttoEuropeansecurityhasgrown,instabilityintheEU,simmediateneighbourhoodhasincreased,andsecurityrisksandthreatshavebecomemorecomplexandmanifold.InthewordsofHighRepresentativeoftheEUforForeignAffairsandSecurityPolicyJosepBorrell,thishascreatedtheneedfortheEUto,learntousethelanguageofPoWer"2-whichimpliesthenecessitytodevelopitsforeignpolicytoolsaccordingly.TheEUhasmadeeffortstostrengthenitsmilitarycapabilitiesintheframeworkoftheCommonSecurityandDefencePolicy(CSDP)launchedin1999,whileadditionaltoolshavebeencreatedtoaddressnewthreatsinareassuchascybersecurityanddisinformation.TheEUhasthusconstructedanincreasinglycomplextoolboxcomposedofnumerouscompartmentsgovernedbydifferentinstitutionalarrangementsanddecision-makingprocedures,wherebytheEUforeignandsecuritypolicy(EUFSP)hasexpandedbeyondtherelativelylimiteddiplomatic-militaryremitoftheCFSP/CSDP.Howtomobilisethedifferentinstrumentsandapplytheminaconcertedmannerhasbecomeanincreasinglypressingandcomplicatedquestiontoanswer.ThisreportaimstounpackthiscomplexitybyexploringhowandwhyEUFSPhasbecomemoremulti-sectoraloverthepastdecades.ItfocusesonpolicytoolsthatsustainEUcrisisandconflictmanagementefforts.Followingtheintroduction,thesecondpartofthereportanalysestheinternalandexte