CFA三级必备知识点.docx

讲师:JCYBehavioralFinanceCFA三级必备知识点1.TraditionalFinancevs.BehavioralFinanceTraditionalFinancevs.BehavioralFinanceWithintraditionalfinance,individualsareassumedtoberisk-averse,self-interestedutilitymaximizers,(rational).Traditionalfinancefurtherhypothesizesthat,atthemarketlevel,PliCeSincorporateandreflectallavailableandrelevantinformation.Behavioralfinanceincludesbehavioraleconomics,investorPSyChoIOgy)behavioralSCiQnCQ)QXPQrimQntalQConomiCSJandCOgnitiVQpsychology.Thevarietyofapproachestakentoexamineinvestorbehavioraddstotheconfusionaboutwhatismeantbybehavioralfinance,(<e用al)behavioralfinancemicro(BFMI)examinesbehaviorsorbiasesthatdistinguishindividualinvestorsfromtherationalactorsenvisionedinneoclassicaleconomictheory./BFMIquestionstheperfectrationalityanddecision-makingprocessofindividualinvestors.orbehavioralfinancemacro(BFMA)considersmarketanomaliesthatdistinguishmarketsfromtheefficientmarketsoftraditionalfinance./BFMAquestionstheefficiencyofmarkets.TraditionalFinancevsBehavioralFinanceTraditionalFinanceAssumes:BehavioralFinanceAssumes:UnlimitedperfectknowledgeCapacitylimitationsonknowledgeUtilitymaximizationSatisficeFullyrationaldecisionmakingBoundedrationality.CognitivelimitsondecisionmakingRiskaversionLossaverseTraditionalFinancevsBehavioralFinanceUtilityTheoryTomaximizeutility,arationalinvestorwillmakedecisionsconformingtothefouraxiomsOfutility:completeness,transitivity,independence,andcontinuity.RiskAverse(Intraditionalfinance,individualsareassumedtoberisk-averse.)Someonewhopreferstoinvesttoreceiveanexpectedvaluewithcertaintyratherthaninvestintheuncertainalternativethatgeneratesthesameexpectedvalueiscalledrisk-averse.Someonewhoisindifferentbetweenthetwoinvestmentsiscalled4sk-neutral.Someonewhopreferstoinvestintheuncertainalternativeiscalled4sk-Seeking.BoundedrationalityBoundedrationalityassumesthatindividuals'choicesarerationalbutaresubjecttolimitationsofknowledgeandcognitivecapacity,anddonotbehavewithperfectrationality(satisfice).Satisficing("satisfy"&"suffice")isfindinganacceptablesolutionasopposedtooptimizing,whichisfindingthebest(optimal)solution.Il 能司 39sra£JI0>eqCQ7BehavioralBiasesConservatismbiasConfirmationbiasCognitiveerrorsBeliefperseveranceRepresentativenessbiasIllusionofcontrolbiasHindsightbiasMentalaccountingbiasFramingbiasInformation-processingbiasesAnchoring&adjustmentBehavioralbiasesAvailabilitybias1.ossaversionbiasOverconfidencebiasSelf-controlbiasEmotionalbiasesStatusquobiasEndowmentbiasRegret-aversionbiasCognitiveErrorsandEmotionalBiasesABehavioralbiasesmaybecategorizedaseithercognitiveerrorsoremotionalbiases.ACognitiveerrorsCIn2duePFimellrilytofaultyccisoningCIndCoUlddFiscfrom口IcICkOfUndCTStelndingPnjPCrBtotMisICln口IyGiStechniques,informCItionprocessingmigtzkes,faulty3g0ning,ormemoryerrors.Cognitiveerrorsacemoreeasilycorrectedforbecausetheystemfromfaultyreasoningratherthananemotionalpredisposition.Cognitiveerrorscanbefurtherclassifiedintotwocategories:/beliefperseverancebiases/andinformation-processingbiases.AEmotionalbiasesstemfromimpulseorintuition;emotionalbiasestendtoresultfromreasoninginfluencedbyfeelings.EmotiOnalbiasesarehardertoCOrTeCtforbecausetheyarebasedonfeelings,whichcanbedifficulttochange.>Tomoderateabiasistorecognizethebiasandtoattempttoreduceoreveneliminatethebiaswithintheindividual.AToadapttoabiasistorecognizeandacceptthebiasandtoadjustforthebiasratherthantoattempttomoderatethebias.CognitiveErrors:BeliefPerseverance>Beliefperseveranceisthetendencytodingtoone'spreviouslyheldbeliefsirrationallyorillogically.Conservatismbias,peoplemcint口intheirPFiorViCWgOirforecastsbyin日dequ3telyincorpoatingnewinformation;Confirmationbias.Individualstendtonoticeonlyinformationthatagreeswiththeirperceptionsorbeliefs.ThCyIOokforconfirmingC)UidCncoWhilcjdiscountingorevenignoringevidencethatcontradictstheirbeliefsortheirperceptions;Representativenessbias,peopletendtoClcISsifvnewinfomotionbDcdepstCKPeTiCnCCS口ndCESSifistions.ThiSbiasoccursbecausepeopleattemptingtoderivemeaningfromtheirexperiencestendtoclassifyobjectsandthoughtsintopersonalizedcategories;Twoforms:baserateneglect,sample-sizeneglect.Illusionofcontrol.PGOPIGtendtobGiccthattheyCelncontroloinfluGno?OUtcomesWhCnjnfact,theysnnot.expectancyofapersonalsuccessprobabilityinappropriatelyhigherthantheobjectiveprobabilitywouldwarrant;Hindsightbias,abiaswithselectiveperceptionandretentionaspects.PeoplefH3yeeawev24ts日ShavingbeenPFediCtableandreasonabletoexpect.2008TemplateforQuestion2圜Donaldson'sstatementSelectthebehavioralfinanceconceptbestexhibitedineachofDonaIdsonzSthreestatements.Note:Nobehavioralfinanceconceptcanbeusedmorethanonce,(circleone)ExplainhowthebehavioralfinanceconceptyouselectedaffectsDonaldson'sinvestmentd