-模块化建筑成本模型（英文版）.docx

AECOMBui1.ttode1.iverabetterwor1.d.Ih1.Costmode1.Modu1.arconstructionAneditedversionofthisartic1.efirstappearedinBui1.dingmagazineinApri1.2017Contents1 .Background042 .Modu1.arconstruction053 .Design074 .Procurementandconstructiono5 .Costinf1.uencers106.Sustainabi1.ityn7.Thecostmode1.15A1.1.imge:IRyQe1.1.ghamC<XKi(Rc<r5S1.rkH3ftxu<*Penners)RoOIMsDIreCIoCPrograECostConsdUncy1CanmcrciaIrob.fni1.aDebatesaboutmodu1.arconstructionandoff-sitemanufacturearenothingnew.Btwithmoresupp1.iers,betterqua1.ityandgreaterawarenesswithintheindustry,cou1.ditfina1.1.yachievecritica1.mass?RobMi1.1.sofAECOM1.ooksatthefigures.JamesBartonandGarryBurdettofAECOMfortheirhe1.pXnpreparingthisartic1.e.01Backgroundttmayhavehaddifferentnamesovertheyearsprefabrication,modu1.arbi1.d>g.desgf<xmanufactureandassemb1.y.oroff-site11structionbuttheideaofconstructingbuWingsawayfromthesitewheretheywi1.1.eventua1.1.ystandhashada1.onghistory.datingasfarbackasthe16thcentury.ThepostwarpushPerhapsthemostnotab1.euseofmodu1.arCOnS1.rUCtiOnVJaSduringtheUK'spostwartransitiona1.period,whichdrovetheneedforhomesandacce1.eratedthesearchftaremedytomeetthecountry'shousingsupp1.yissuesTbe1.egacyofthatbui1.dgprogrammesurvivestoday,withmanyothosepostwarhomesSti1.standing.Inthatperiod,redundantarmsfactoriesWefeadaptedtoa1.1.owex-servicemenandwomentoproduceprefabricatedhousingincontro1.1.edfactorycondi1.ions.Thisaddressedthepreexistinghousingsupp1.yprob1.emsandtargetedemp1.oymentissues-anideathatwou1.dsuretyresonatetoday.Yetthiswasanopportunitymissed.Are1.ative1.ysma1.1.numberofhouseswerede1.iveredinthatpost-warpush.Techno1.ogica1.innova1.ionswerenotadop<d.andsotherewas1.itt1.echangetoIhedeve1.opmentoftheindustry.1.ivingthehigh-riseThroughoutthe1950sandear1.y1960s.demandforhousingwasaresu1.tofmajors1.umc1.earancesininnercities.Thissetaprecedentforgovernmenthousingtargetsandsavtheintroductionofa1.arge-pane1.residentia1.systemsonhigh-riseb1.ocks.basedontheirSUCCgSSIU1.app1.icationinScandinavia.ThefirstuseOtsuchsystemswasanine-b1.ockresidentia1.schemecommissionedbythe1.ondonBorougho1.Ntewhamusingthe1.arsen*Nie1.sensystem.Thesubsequentprogressiveco1.1.apseofthestructureintheRonanPointb1.ock1.edtoconcernsarounddurabi1.ityandstructura1.performance.Thison1.yaddedtoexistingnegativeviews&methods&prefabricatedconstruction.02Modu1.arconstructionTimesarea-changingFast-forwardtopresentday.andthingshaveChanged.PerformanceisnowmorethanCfeCrt)Ie.QuaMyisverygoodandviabi1.ityassessmentsareencouragingwhencomparedwithatraditiona1.approachRecentstest1.matessuggestthat,formedium-sizeSChemeS.modu1.ar11structionu1.dbe10-20%moreCosteffec1.rvethantraditiona1.methods.InthePasuhemodu1.arapproachhasbeenseentostmoreandthiscanbeattributedtodesignerstryingtofashionadesignforatraditiona1.bui1.dintosomethingthatfitswiththemodu1.arapproach.Thisdoesn'ta1.waysworkandeconomica1.projectshavebeendesignedasmodu1.arfromtheoutset.Themodu1.arsupp1.ychainissti1.1.fartyimmature.However,modu1.arsupp1.iersthemse1.veshaveverystrongsupp1.ychainsandsocanmpetonpriceversusIheIrtractona1.counterparts.Cross-sectorappea1.Itisnosurprisethatinterestinthisapproachtsgainingtraction.Contractors1.iketheenhancedhea1.thandsafetybenefitsgainedfromhaving1.essheavyandtime-consuming11src1.ionworkoccurringonsiteandthe1.ogistica1.ChaBengeseased,especia1.1.ywhenfacedwithtightinner-citysiteswherestorageor1.ay-downareasaresometimesnon-existent.Therea悟Owaste.Projectmanagers1.ikethe1.ean.on-siteprogrammesthatresu1.tfromoff-sitemanufacture.Deve1.opersoftenapproveofthereducedfinancechargesandIherevenuestreamsf1.owingfromtheear1.iermart(etingandviewingo(comp1.etedhomesthatresu1.t.Itasoundstoogoodtobetre.Buttheusua1.hurdtesaroundqua1.ityperceptionhavebeenreso1.vedandinvestorsareP1.aOngcashandexpectationintoexpandingfactoriesEarerdrawdownofsocia1.housinggrantsbysoda1.registered1.and1.ordsandear1.iercomp1.etiona1.somakethisappachmoteattractive,whereapp1.icab1.e.Withanear1.ierandfastercomptetio.theadditiona1.costsassociatedwithinf1.ationandS1esca1.ationisminimisedbyreduced11tractduration.10-20%COetH)rvrtc石form0dumsize8Cems,11x>AjarconstrudiOA.EOrOcos：g&oct”thanTadftcna1.metxxfcA1.1.-modu1.ar,fina1.1.y?Thegover11mentisa1.sointerestedimodu1.arconstrctio11,rotaWyintbpotentia1.foruppingtheband¼vkithofhousingde1.iveryandc1.osingthegapbetweensupp1.yanddemand.whichsattheforefrontofthecurrentindustrydebate.Addtothattheprospectofmitigatingtheskinsshortageacrosstheindustryasawho1.e-nottomentionanestimated203O%dec1.ineinski1.1.ed1.abourOvefnextdecadeduetomigrationandretirement-andit'snowonderthatmodu1.arconstruction'stimeisming.Ithastakenawhi1.etoreachfruition."Modernmethodsofconstructk)nHhasbeenindustryjargon1oryears.butunti1.recent1.ythepercentageofschemescomp1.etedusingtheserwtho(fewasStuc