IMF-肯尼亚：精选问题（英）-2024.1.docx

INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDIMFCountryReportNo.24/14KENYASE1.ECTEDISSUESJanuary2024ThispaperonKenyawaspreparedbyastaffteamoftheInternationalMonetaryFundasbackgrounddocumentationfortheperiodicconsultationwiththemembercountry.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonDecember22,2023.CopiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfromInternationalMonetaryFundPublicationServicesPOBox92780Washington,D.C.20090Telephone:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201E-mail:publicationsimf.orgWeb:Price:$18.00perprintedcopyInternationalMonetaryFundWashington,D.C.©2024InternationalMonetaryFundDecember22,2023ApprovedByAfricanDepartmentINTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDKENYASE1.ECTEDISSUESPreparedByValerioCrispoltiandSouvikGupta(bothAFR),andSybiHida(FAD),undertheguidanceofHaimanotTeferra(missionhead,AFR)assistedbyMireilleNsanzimanafFrancineNyankiye,andFernandoMoranArce(allAFR).CONTENTSBENCHMARKINGTAXPERFORMANCEINKENYA4A. AnatomyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesinEACCountries4B. Conclusion13FIGURES1. Tax-to-GDPRatio52. CompositionofTax-to-GDPRatio53. Tax-to-GDPRatios54. FrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesbyTaxTypeandCountryOver1988-202295. NetFrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesbyTaxTypeandCountryOver1988-2022106. ShareofTaxMeasuresinaPackage117. CompositionofTaxPackages118. Co-occurrenceofChangestoTaxPolicyandAdministrativePracticesinReformPackagesbyTypeofChangeOver1988-2022129. FrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesbyTypeofChangeOver1988-20221310. NetFrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesbyTypeofChangeOver1988-20221311. NetFrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesOver2009-2214TAB1.ES1. FrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesinEACCountries*EconomiesOver1988-2022_72. FrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesbyTaxTypeOver1988-20228APPENDIXI.TablesandFigures15ASSESSINGPUB1.ICSECTORBA1.ANCESHEETVU1.NERABl1.rnES23A. Introduction23B. APublicSectorBalanceSheetApproach25C. MethodologyandCoverageforKenya,sPSBS29D. PublicSectorBalanceSheetsandFiscalPolicyAnalysis33E. Caveats35F. ConclusionandRecommendations35BOX1. FiscalStatistics24FIGURES2. CurrentCoverageofPublicSector263. BudgetDeficit264. PublicSectorCompensationofEmployees,FY201920-202223275. GeneralGovernmentCompensationofEmployees,Average2017-21,andforKenyaFY202223276. SAGAs/SCsProfitand1.oss,FY202122287. SAGAs/SCsProfitand1.oss,FY202223288. CoverageofthePublicSectorBalanceSheet309. PublicSectorBalanceSheetzFY2022233110. PublicSectorNetWorthofSelectedCountries,VaryingYears3211. PublicSectorBalanceSheet33TAB1.E1.DividendsandTaxesPaidbySAGAsandPublicCorporations27ANNEXESI.HMTreasury,UnitedKingdom:PublicSectorBalanceSheetFramework3811.EstimatedPublicSectorBalanceSheetMethodologyandSourceofDataonKenya40References42QUANTIFYINGEXCHANGERATEPASSTHROUGHTOINF1.ABON43A. Introduction43B. EstimationandOutput44C. Conclusion49FIGURES1. ExchangeRates432. HeadlineInflation433. AccumulatedResponseofInflationtoExchangeRateShock464. HeadlineInflationStructuralVarianceDecomposition465. ExchangeRatePassthroughEstimatesUsingRollingRegressions476. AccumulatedResponseofInflationtoExchangeRateShocks487. CumulativeResponseofPolicyRatetoInflationShock498. PolicyRateStructuralVarianceDecomposition49ANNEXI.TechnicalAnnex50References54BENCHMARKINGTAXPERFORMANCEINKENYA1ThisnoteexaminestaxpolicyandadministrativechangesinEasternAfricanCommunity(EAC)countrieswithaviewtobenchmarkKenya'sexperienceanddrawlessonsforfuturetaxreforms.UsinggranulardatafromanewIMFdatabaseontaxmeasuresannouncedduring1988-2022,itconcludesthatEACpolicymakersfrequentlychangedtheirtaxsystemandadministrationsbyannouncingtaxpackagesthattypicallyconsistedofmeasurestonarrowthetaxbase(e.g.lexemptions,deductions)andstrengthentaxadministrativepractices(e.g.,electronicpayments,taxcompliancestrategy).KenyaappearedtobeoneoftheEACcountriesthatmostfrequentlyannouncedandintroducedsuchchanges,whichmighthaveplayedasignificantroleinexplainingthereductioninthetax-to-GDPratioexperiencedbythecountrysince2014.Theconclusionsofthisnotearesubjecttocaveatsasthefrequencyoftaxmeasuresisnotanindicatoroftheactualrevenueimpactofsuchmeasures.1.ookingatthefrequencyofchanges,however,canhelpidentifyreformepisodesprovidingasenseoftheirdurationandcomprehensiveness.A.AnatomyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesinEACCountries1. Kenya,stax-to-GDPratiohasbeenonadownwardtrajectoryoverthepastdecade(Figure1).Afterreachingapeakat15.5percentofGDPin2014,taxrevenuessteadilyfellto13.1percentofGDPin2020mainlyreflectingthedeclineinincometaxesfrom8.0percentofGDPin2014to6.5percentofGDPin2020(Figure2).Duringthepandemic(2020-22)thetaxratioinitiallyfellfurtherincludingduetotheintroductionoftaxbreakstocushiontheimpactoftheshockontheeconomyandthenstartedreboundingastheauthoritiesbroadenedthetaxbaseconsistentwiththeobjectivesofthecurrentEFF/ECFarrangementswithKenya(approve