牛津经济研究院-啤酒在低收入国家的经济贡献（英）-2024.1.docx

够IiFN屈油CSOFBEERIN1.OWERINCOMECOUNTRIESTAB1.EOFCONTENTSExecutivesummary41. Introduction62. Thebeersector'seconomicfootprint83. Beerconsumption143.1 Beerconsumptionpatterns143.2 Beerconsumptioninthecontextofthebroaderalcoholindustry164. Thebeersector'spotentialtogrowinlowerincomecountries184.1 Modellingapproach184.2 Beersector'spotentialtocontributemoretolowerincomeeconomies185. Factorsinfluencingbeerconsumptioninlowerincomecountries225.1 Factorsinfluencingalcoholconsumption2252Factorsinfluencingbeerconsumption226. Conclusionsandfutureresearchrecommendations26Appendix286.1Beer'sconsumptionovertime2862Modellingframework28$34billionThebeersector,scontributiontoGDPinlowerincomecountries.TheaveragecontributiontoGDPwas1.6%acrosslowerincomecountriesin2019,comparedto0.9%acrosshighincomecountries.67millionJobssupportedbythebeersectorinlowerincomecountries.IMlfflTMEXECUTIVESUMMARYIn2022zwepublishedastudyoftheglobalbeersector'seconomicfootprintacross70countries,conductedonbehalfoftheWorldwideBrewingAllianceusing2019data.Onemainfindingofourpreviousstudyisthatthebeersector'seconomicsignificanceissubstantiallylargeracrosslowerincomeeconomies.Inthisreport,weinvestigatefurthertheimportanceofthebeersectorinlowerincomeeconomies.Webeginbyexaminingwhythebeersector'seconomicsignificanceisgreaterinlowerincomecountries,andthenanalysehowbeerconsumptionvariesacrosscountries.Wealsoexplorehowtheseeconomiccontributionscouldpotentiallyincreasefurtheriftheshareofbeerconsumptionrose,whilekeepingoverallalcoholicbeverageconsumptionlevelconstant.Weconcludewithrecommendationsforfurtherstudies.Thebeersectoralreadysupportslargersharesofeconomicvalueinlowerincomeeconomies.In2019zthebeersector'scontributiontoGDPaveraged1.6%acrosslowerincomecountries,almostdoubleitscontributiontoGDPinhighincomecountries(anaverageof0.9%ofnationalGDP).Thebeersectorinlowerincomecountriesalsosupportedmorejobsinbothabsoluteandrelativeterms(anaverageof1.4%ofnationalemploymentversus1.1%inhighincomecountries),whichcouldbeexplainedbythelowerlevelsoflabourproductivityandamoreprominentroleofagricultureinthesecountries.Thebeersectorinthesecountriesisalsocharacterisedbyalessprominentroleofthedownstreamsegment(accountingforonly39%ofthesector'sgrossvalueaddedcontribution,comparedto62%inhighincomecountries)andalowerlevelofinternationalisation(nearlyallthebeersoldinlowerincomecountriesisproduceddomestically,comparedtohighincomecountrieswhereanaverage12%ofsalesbydownstreambusinessesisimportedfromoverseas).Beerconsumptiontendstobelowerinlowerincomecountriescomparedtotherestoftheworld.Theaveragepersoninlowerincomecountriesconsumesonlyonethirdofthebeerconsumedbytheircounterpartsinhighincomecountries.Despitelowerpricesandlowerlevelsofconsumption,consumersinlowerincomecountriesallocatealargershareoftheirdisposableincometobeercomparedtoindividualsacrossothercountryincomegroups.OXFORDECONOMICSThisindicatesbeeriscomparativelylessaffordableinlowerincomecountries.Furthermore,wefindthatdemandforbeerincreasesClisproportionallyatlowincomelevels(i.e.zamonglowerincomecountries),butismuchlessincomesensitiveascountriesbecomericher.Thissuggeststhatbeerbehavesasa''luxurygood“inlowerincomeeconomies,asopposedtoa''normalgood“inhighincomecountries.Whilethesegeneralobservationsaremadebasedonconsumptionpatterns,wearenotabletodrawanyconclusionsaboutthesignificanceorcausalityoftherelationshipbetweendisposableincomeandbeerconsumption.$67Averagepercapitaexpenditureonbeerinlowerincomecountries,significantlylowerthanthe$403spentinhighincomecountries.Thebeersectorcouldmakeevenlargereconomiccontributionsinlowerincomecountriesifbeerwasalargershareoftotalalcoholconsumption.Weestimatethattotalgrossvalueaddedcontributionbythebeersectorcouldrisetoanaverageof2.2%ofGDPacrosslowerincomeeconomies.Thesector'spotentialtogrowisfoundtobegreatestinIndia,Ethiopia,andGhana.Thereareseveralconstraintstothebeersector'spotentialtomakeevenlargereconomiccontributionsinlowerincomecountries.Whenaccountingforalcoholcontentandvolume,beerisrelativelymoreexpensivethanspiritsacrosscountriesofallincomegroups,withalargerdifferencefoundamonglowerincomecountries.1.ookingatexcisedutiesbyethanolcontent,beerisalsotaxedmorethanspiritsacrosslowerincomecountries.Beyondprices,thereareotherfactorstoconsiderthatcaninfluencepeoplezsdecisionstoconsumebeer,includingtastesandculturaldifferences.Incertaincountries,spirits,wine,andotheralcoholicbeveragesarepreferredandmorepopularthanbeer.+$37biThepotentialincreaseincontributionstoGDPbythebeersectorinlowerincomecountriesifbeerconsumptionlevelsrosetoourCounterfactualscenario.Thereishowevermuchlefttoexploreinrelationtothistopic.Somepossibleextensionstothisstudycouldinvolvelookingattheoverallmacroeconomicimpactofincreasedbeerconsumptionontheeconomy;assessingtaxframeworksforalcohol;investigatingtheimpactofunrecordedalcoholconsumption