【旅游文旅报告】社会服务业行业研究：元旦国内旅游略好于预期持续看好理性繁荣-20240101-国金证券.docx
OIS金证弊WtMMIMIMU三K社会服务业行业研究买入（维持评级）行业专题研究报告证券研究报告社会服务组分析师：叶思嘉(执业S1130523080001)yesijia元旦国内旅游略好于预期，持续看好理性繁荣投资逻辑二()*人-0S2345r(709.v=5*A2OABCoE-Q*+F三GDIJK5,1.QISI(7rO*-H-.OS23QR¼T,UVS234W,XV1.Z<B)TAZ-U'4a<g>AbR"，defv=5()*+/OABoe>(ghiSk,l=2023.12.31rhi-S2=19tuv63%,12yz4R,-,AAQNO-UOXMaaQ.hZoolfzAia($tnfid>ooo'XQ,Q-¼uuAuuCRo-i£eoQS*%oD1.3©八-nTM%oFG5o0li±.2024tQS¥|_iv,K<tm.1.O%0_rh-,b>4B*%01.29<三)-2023七+78.4%.一2022t+33.1%,o百015CJ=JM%oq*"0(i473o->"TZ5*lQ09(1442.八-4”2023t+177.r%2022X+1O4.8%,D»Q§SOQFGaD.Qo三*:()*-11-.O.AU三A2=19tuvOooe109.4%.10r.6%-96.r%;QE+Z<B>.OUV<s>,c÷U*-FizhZEQaVy20243VK<<>*÷Q÷1.3r©人-J1.l”它1rr.3%,0O,toeS2=2019tuv109.4%;<G()*h-/O797.3©#,i_iVX2OO.7%,O»=«oeS2=2019tuv10r.6%;>fi*AUr91#,u*VX17.4%,fiS2=2019tuv96.r%oE-#Q*-i-FGDIJK5,1.QN(7rOt4*-*-.OS23QR¼T,UVS234W,Uf0T,bdfi,%oAeAe%o()*-00(三>ABCo-A()-fFTz1>TxSK,-el><±>DOUtTcUU+.1.J*11-bO-OU,Xv*-v*-*-cA0Utt>×1r8%;2>Q§SUSk,w(-*-VXD,*Sc-f,-÷3>ttnA.Oh±E=,12D3F-*-F,45XQAE78'.±ZEI9,124:0;,832$<=*-On>-.CltVOA-19toeAVZ60.1%-81.3%;%1S,20ri->FGf<-5oQE-FSk,ZE($ArBC-Y,QvDK(aEIQQ0E*,D1r6e,-,uV-rF,D19tuxz90%;j土ZGH,o)“。左”+&Au“S>O4F,12yQOt-ScAtVZ11%,ucS>"26r%,OtQAD23tekzI60%,XVJKZTo1.M=3FNOPQuRiZEFGaoZE(S±TUVWXYfi3FZNOPQ,2024t#QT'IK(uRabS2=2023tOtt(2022.12.31-2023.1.1>2021tt*ce(2021.1.1-2021.1.2>136%.81%,dQ1.2021t''S23十/Te。9(79%>4fQN<7IQO9<84%NFG'DIJo投资建议E-#Q()*十八-.OS2士Z451v,df<=5()*-*-.1.M<ABC,Q-11uuAuuAZeoS2R",EegD,Fni2024t,<5§jk<2f<,T-lm11-tv.op>crst,uv5*wox§yz,R*-F-1.M,*+QQE÷lmuuAuuegD.Q,1-TXYAAR-u7Q_E$N-OrU,w-o风险提示AEaaavS2aA-v,QE-»-o'aa_A,aQeae,fUV,1TTbo1. nT:()*-S245-t-v,f<=5ooA2o42. QSz*it>oD1.3©八-,tm%°fG-543. a*z()-4-.OS23(7QR¼T,=5<三>ABCr4. 1.Mz3FPQuRUk212¼H14&3*uF1:2O24tv*tt>0uu4uF：:a“丁m口oS23(%2019uv>rUF3二K()uhi023(%2O19,a=2O23t12f31>ruF4zK(9-uhioS23(%2019°a=2O23t12f31>ruFrz2024QZ(7()0"口oe*+人-.OS2=19七109%-106%6uF6z<13S6uF7z-*<部£31§6uF8:2024#QO1.J*-i-T“7uF9z2024#、。Cr+T"7uF10z()ia-T4>2024q*-./Ouu8uF11z()1a-Tn2024>S2;,9uF12zlUB2024tsUQ?-10uF13z5I1.J<B)IQlJQ?-1OuF14z5A-urii©oS23(%2019,a-=2O23t12f31>11uF1rzz-urii©oS23(%2019,a-=2O23t12f31>11uF16z°ZE*urii©oS23(%2019,a-=2O23f12f31>11uF17z-0-urii©0S23(%2O19,a-=2O23t12f31>11uF18zQ(QO-S2uu11uF19z=23-tr(9uhioS2=191160%11uF20z±uhi0S23(%2O19,a=2O23f12f31>12uF21zv)tQO±IQOf<¼T12uF22z4Q23Q+O*6'XQ12uF23zSFNO1.M(三)IK(uR>OS2V(%2021>13uF24z3FNO1.M(B)K(uR>OS2V(T-tuv>13uF2rzSFNO1.M(B)IK(uR>OS2¥3<%2021>13uF26二SFNO1.M(B)IK(uR>OS2¥3C-T-tuv>13OBISHWMCMVTmuF27zQx/DppK(Z>X<vRQbC±nOTT13uF28z#/QvDppK(6><vRQbC±nGTT141观点：国内旅游恢复略好于预期，持续着好体验型消费复苏二。*人-./0423451(709,；v=5*+A?。ABUo<V÷U*÷i±ZQaV92024tQv3¥,Y«)*+q+1.3r<三>-,u*VX1rr.3%,oO,ooeS2=2019U<三9O797.3©#,Ui4VX200.7%,OoeS2=2019tuv10r.6%;>fiAUr91,uttVX17.4%,fiS2=2019tu96%o-#°*h-FGOIJK5,1.QN(7rOtt*-*-/OS23QR-,UVS234W,XV1.Z<B)-AZ-U'4a(AbRt,df<=5()*-O<S>ABCo(ghiSk,l=2023.12.31rhi-S2=2019tuv63%,12vn4R,-,AAq£NO+U0aTMaaQe-hZ0fzAa(*nf100oo'XQ,Q÷uuAuuCRo-(£o1.MSk,3FNOPQuR±ZEFGIJ,aul>DS2-oXE(S±TUVWXYfi3FZNOPQ-,2O24Wq-'IK(uRan,bS2=2023tO0oe<2022.12.31-2023.1.12021t,tce<2021.1.1-2021.1.2>136%-81%,dQ1.2021tt*S23×/Te-O(79%>4fQN(7IQO9(84%>iFQ-DIJo巨-#Q()*十人-.OS2±45十v,defv=5()：+.1.MABO,。自+1CAQCjANeoS2OR",EegD,Ini2024t,<5§jk<2f<,T-lm11-.opprst,uv5*wox§yz,aR*-b-1.M,*÷QQ÷lmuuAuu£egD.Q,J-TXYAAaR-u7Q_N.rU*w,-*-.K>*-o2、出行：旅客发送近1.3亿人次，铁路表现较好#oKrGaTMA.>D1.3人dQTM%OFGaoOZ三011士×,2024to5*v,K(%o.1.%o.O%o.rh-,D<*%01.29<三>-2023t+78.4%-20221:+33.1%,o0ISU=,tm%oQ*t>0(1473.人->-«亡/丁人N5*lQO9(1442.人-4一2023t+177.r%."2022t+1O4.8%,D»Q§SUQFGaD.Qo4三72024t#ONV*"BCtQ单位：万人次或万辆全国营业性客流公路铁路民航水路高速公路2023年1月21日-1月27日（春节假期7天）旅客发送量22600162005017.4900.6486.8118400同比73.8%77.5%57.0%79.8%59.8%18.60%恢复至2019年同期53.7%47.9%83.1%71.6%47.6%117.20%日均旅客发送量32292314717129701691432023年4月29日-5月3曰（劳动节假期5天）旅客发送量27019163099088.1941.5680.431045.94日均同比162.9%99.1%464.4%507.4%114.2%101.83%恢复至2019年同期日均80.7%70.6%122.1%104.2%33.7%-日均旅客发送量5404326218181881366209.192023年6月22日-6月24日（端午节假期3天）旅客发送量140478934432653425311808.06同比89.1%64.4%150.2%287.0%99.3%40.47%恢复至2019年同期77.2%66.7%112.8%103.0%56.4%125%日均旅客发送量468229781442178843936.022023年9月29日-10月6日（4旅客发送量45,82228,98614,1091,7091,01848344日均同比57.1%39.4%158.0%195.0%103.8%55%恢复至2019年同期日均66.1%57.8%122.4%112.6%65.6%121%日均旅客发送量5,7283,6231,76421412760432023年12月30日-2024年1月1曰（元旦节假期3天）旅客发送量12,8137,7004,420519
